The Numbers Game: Liverpool out to halt Turkiye hoodoo in Champions League

Liverpool were left to rue their first-half wastefulness after suffering a 1-0 defeat to Premier League champions Arsenal on Sunday. 

Andoni Iraola's men laid siege to the Gunners' goal for long periods but finished that game without a single shot on target, from 17 attempts overall.

It was the first time on record that Liverpool had failed to register a shot on target in a Premier League game at Anfield, having played 442 such games there since Opta records began in 2003-04.

The Reds have scored just four goals at Anfield in the Premier League this season, their joint-fewest after five home matches in a top-flight campaign (also four in 1913-14 and 2012-13). 

But things have been brighter in Europe, as they have won their first three games in the league phase of the Champions League, making them one of five teams to boast a perfect record across the opening three matchdays.

But how will they fare against Fenerbahce – who recently named former Reds forward Dirk Kuyt as their interim head coach – on Wednesday? 

Here, we delve into the Opta insights to provide a data-powered preview for that game.  

What's expected? 

Although Liverpool have struggled in Turkiye historically, the Opta supercomputer fancies Liverpool's chances of claiming a fourth straight Champions League victory this week.

They are assigned a 59% chance of taking all three points, with 19.5% of pre-match simulations going the way of Fenerbahce and the remaining 21.5% being drawn.

Wednesday's match will be the first-ever meeting between Fenerbahce and Liverpool, and overall, the Reds have only won four of their 11 games against Turkish sides in the European Cup or Champions League (D2 L5).

However, their most recent such game was a 4-0 home victory over Galatasaray in March this year, in the second leg of a round-of-16 tie. 

Liverpool lost the first leg of that tie 1-0 in Istanbul, having also gone down by the same scoreline against Galatasaray in the league phase. It was the first time in the Reds' European history that they had lost two away games against the same opponents in a single season.

And Fener have at least been difficult to beat on their own turf, drawing their last three home matches in Europe, including qualifiers (versus Lyon, Roma and Slavia Prague).  They have only had a run of four consecutive home draws once previously in Europe, between August 2010 and September 2012 (four).

Kuyt set for Reds reunion 

Wednesday's game will have additional meaning for Liverpool, following last week's announcement that their former forward Kuyt had been named as Fener's interim head coach.

Kuyt, who was a Champions League runner-up with the Reds in 2006-07, scored nine goals and supplied five assists in 37 appearances for Liverpool in the competition.

Only 12 non-English players have represented the Reds more often in the Champions League, with Virgil van Dijk (67) and Georginio Wijnaldum (41) the two Dutchmen to do so.

Kuyt also represented Fenerbahce towards the end of his playing career, and he took the reins following Ismail Kartal's resignation, which came in the aftermath of a 2-1 defeat to arch-rivals Galatasaray.

His reign did not get off to the ideal start as Fener were beaten 2-1 by Goztepe on Saturday, a result that leaves them fifth in the Super Lig. In Europe, they have just two points on the board, having been routed 6-0 by Aston Villa in between draws with Roma (1-1) and Slavia Prague (2-2).

Following that draw against Slavia Prague, the Istanbul giants are now enduring their longest-ever winless run in the European Cup or Champions League (10 games – D4 L6).

If Fener cannot pick up a victory soon, their first Champions League proper campaign since 2008-09 may be on life support, so Kuyt needs to make an immediate impact.

No Turkish delight for Liverpool

Liverpool have a truly terrible record in Turkiye. 

In fact, in no other country do they have a worse history in the European Cup or the Champions League.

Ahead of Wednesday's clash at the Chobani Stadium, Liverpool have never won an away game against a Turkish side in the European Cup or Champions League, in six attempts (D1 L5).

Their last four trips to the country have ended in defeat, including those aforementioned 1-0 defeats to Galatasaray under Arne Slot last season. 

The Reds have never lost five consecutive away games against sides from one nation in the European Cup or Champions League before.

Liverpool's perfect record through three matchdays should give them hope, and if their last few Champions League games are anything to go by, there should be plenty of entertainment on offer.

Having beaten Atletico Madrid 2-1, LASK 6-3 and Villarreal 4-3, Liverpool have scored 12 goals in the competition already this campaign.

That is their best tally three games into a European Cup or Champions League campaign since 1980-81 (also 12), a season in which they went on to lift the trophy.

Liverpool have spread those goals around, with seven different players hitting the net for them across the first three matchdays – only Barcelona and Real Madrid (eight each) had more, with Bradley Barcola and Alexis Mac Allister leading the way with three apiece.

Amid all the noise surrounding his domestic form, Florian Wirtz has enjoyed himself in Europe, and he has typified Iraola's high-pressing approach perhaps more than any other player. He was one of just three midfielders to apply 100+ high-intensity pressures over the first three matchdays (105), along with Guus Til (129) and Bruno Fernandes (112).

As a team, Liverpool ranked second for high turnovers coming into MD4, with only Arsenal (34) bettering their 33 across the first three rounds. 

Fenerbahce are sure to be up for this encounter, so maintaining those energy levels will be key if Liverpool are to come out on top.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Fenerbahce – Vedat Muriqi

Thirty-two-year-old striker Muriqi is still hunting his first Champions League goal, following eight goalless appearances in the competition. 

He has failed to net from chances with an expected goals (xG) value of 1.44 in the 2026-27 edition, with only Jude Bellingham going goalless with a higher xG figure across the first three rounds (1.61).

Liverpool – Rio Ngumoha

Ngumoha has been one to watch in Europe, completing more dribbles across the first three matchdays than any other player in the Champions League (18).

Ngumoha's nine dribbles completed against Villarreal last time out were the most by any player in a single game through the first three rounds, and he should get more minutes this week as Iraola manages his squad.